Christian Keil

1. Matsunobu, T., C. Keil, G.C. Craig (2025): A Variance Budget to estimate the Growth and Interaction of Uncertainties in Convective-scale Forecasts. Under review at Mon. Wea. Rev.
2. Chen, I., J. Berner, C. Keil, G. Thompson, Y.-H. Kuo, G. Craig (2025): To which degree do the details of stochastic perturbation schemes matter for convective-scale and mesoscale perturbation growth?, Mon. Wea. Rev., 153, 447-469, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-24-0030.1
3. Puh, M., Tempest, K., Keil, C., Craig, G. (2024): Flow dependence of forecast uncertainty in a large convection-permitting ensemble. Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 150(765), 5113–5126, http://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4860
4. Tempest, K., Craig, G., Puh, M., Keil, C. (2024): Convergence of forecast distributions in weak and strong forcing convective weather regimes. Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 150(763), 3220–3237, http://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4684
5. Matsunobu, T., Puh, M., Keil, C. (2024): Quantifying flow- and scale-dependent spatial predictability of convective precipitation. Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 150, 2364–2381 http://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4713
6. Chen, I., J. Berner, C. Keil, Y. Kuo, and G. Craig (2024): Classification of Warm-Season Precipitation in High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) Model Forecasts over the Contiguous United States. Mon. Wea. Rev., 152, 187–201, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-23-0108.1.
7. Puh, M., C. Keil, C. Gebhardt, C. Marsigli, M. Hirt, F. Jakub, and G. C. Craig (2023): Physically based stochastic perturbations improve high‐resolution forecast of convection. Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 149, 3582–3592. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4574
8. Diefenbach, T., Craig, G., Keil, C., Scheck, L. & Weissmann, M.(2023) Partial analysis increments as diagnostic for LETKF data assimilation systems. Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 149, 740–756. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4419
9. Matsunobu, T., Keil, C., and Barthlott, C. (2022): The impact of microphysical uncertainty conditional on initial and boundary condition uncertainty under varying synoptic control, Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1273–1289, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1273-2022.
10. Matsunobu, T., Keil, C., and Barthlott, C. (2022): ICON-D2 microphysically perturbed ensemble simulations including initial and boundary condition uncertainty. LMU Munich, Faculty of Physics. (Dataset). DOI: 10.57970/d1dn5-zwj06
11. Barthlott, C., Zarboo, A., Matsunobu, T., and Keil, C. (2022): Impacts of combined microphysical and land-surface uncertainties on convective clouds and precipitation, Atmos. Chem. Phys., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-10841-2022.
12. Craig, G. C., M. Puh, C. Keil, K. Tempest, T. Necker, J. Ruiz, M. Weissmann, and T. Miyoshi, (2022): Distributions and convergence of forecast variables in a 1,000-member convection-permitting ensemble. Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 148, 2325–2343. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4305
13. Baur, F., Keil, C. & Barthlott, C. (2022) Combined effects of soil moisture and microphysical perturbations on convective clouds and precipitation for a locally forced case over Central Europe. Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4295
14. Barthlott, C., Zarboo, A., Matsunobu, T., and Keil, C.(2022): Importance of aerosols and shape of the cloud droplet size distribution for convective clouds and precipitation, Atmos. Chem. Phys., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2153-2022
15. Keil, C., Chabert, L., Nuissier, O., and Raynaud, L. (2020): Dependence of Predictability of Precipitation in the Northwestern Mediterranean Coastal Region on the Strength of Synoptic Control, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 15851–15865, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-15851-2020
16. Grazzini F., Craig G. C., Keil, C., Antolini G., Pavan V. (2020): Extreme precipitation events over Northern Italy. Part (I): a systematic classification with machine learning techniques. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 146: 69-85. doi:10.1002/qj.3635
17. Bachmann, K., C. Keil, G.C. Craig, M. Weissmann, C. Welzbacher (2020): Predictability of Deep Convection in Idealized and Operational Forecasts: Effects of Radar Data Assimilation, Orography and Synoptic Weather Regime. Mon. Wea. Rev., 148: 63-81. doi:10.1175/MWR-D-19-0045.1
18. Keil, C., F. Baur, K. Bachmann, S. Rasp, L. Schneider, C. Barthlott (2019): Relative contribution of soil moisture, boundary layer and microphysical perturbations on convective predictability in different weather regimes. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 145: 3102-3115. doi:10.1002/qj.3607
19. Bachmann, K., C. Keil, M. Weissmann (2019): Impact of Radar Data Assimilation and Orography on Predictability of Deep Convection. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 145: 117-130. doi:10.1002/qj.3412
20. Baur, F. , C. Keil, G. C. Craig (2018): Soil Moisture - Precipitation Coupling over Central Europe: Interactions between surface anomalies at different scales and its dynamical implication. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 144: 2863-2875. doi:10.1002/qj.3415
21. Zeng, Y., Janjic, T., de Lozar, A., Blahak, U., Reich, H., Keil, C., Seifert, A. (2018): Representation of model error in convective-scale data assimilation: additive noise, relaxation methods and combinations. J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 10: 2889-2911. doi:10.1029/2018MS001375
22. Arnault, J., T. Rummler, F. Baur, S. Lerch, S. Wagner, B. Fersch, Z. Zhang, N. Kerandi, C. Keil, H. Kunstmann (2018): Precipitation sensitivity to the uncertainty of terrestrial water flow in WRF-Hydro - An ensemble analysis for Central Europe. J. of Hydrometeorology, 19: 1007-1025. DOI:10.1175/jhm-d-17-0042.1
23. Flack, D. L. A., R. S. Plant, S. L. Gray, H. W. Lean, C. Keil. G. C. Craig (2016): Characterisation of convective regimes over the British Isles. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 142: 1541-1553,DOI:10.1002/qj.2758
24. Harnisch, F. and C. Keil (2015): Initial conditions for convective-scale ensemble forecasting provided by ensemble data assimilation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 143: 1583-1600, DOI:10.1175/MWR-D-14-00209.1.
25. Keane, R.J., G.C. Craig, C. Keil, G. Zängl (2014): The Plant-Craig stochastic convection scheme in ICON and its scale-adaptivity. J. Atmos. Sci., 71: 3404-3415, DOI:10.1175/JAS-D-13-0331.1.
26. Kühnlein, C., C. Keil, G. C. Craig, C. Gebhardt (2014): The impact of downscaled initial condition perturbations on convective-scale ensemble forecasts of precipitation. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 140: 1552-1562, DOI:10.1002/qj.2238
27. Kober, K., G. C. Craig, C. Keil (2014): Aspects of short-term probabilistic blending in different weather regimes. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 140: 1179-1188, DOI:10.1002/qj.2220
28. Keil, C., F. Heinlein and G. C .Craig (2014): The convective adjustment time-scale as indicator of predictability of convective precipitation. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 140: 480-490. DOI:10.1002/qj.2143
29. Scheufele, K., K. Kober, G. C. Craig, C. Keil (2014): Combining probabilistic precipitation forecasts from a nowcasting technique with a time-lagged ensemble. Meteorol. Appl., 21: 230-240. DOI: 10.1002/met.1381
30. Kober, K., G. C. Craig, C. Keil, A. Dörnbrack (2012): Blending a probabilistic nowcasting method with a high resolution ensemble for convective precipitation forecasts. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 138: 755–768. DOI:10.1002/qj.939
31. Craig, G.C., C. Keil, D. Leuenberger (2012): Constraints on the impact of radar rainfall data assimilation on forecasts of cumulus convection. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 138: 340-352. DOI:10.1002/qj.929
32. Keil, C. and G. C. Craig (2011): Regime-dependent forecast uncertainty of convective precipitation, Meteorol. Z., 20, 145-151.
33. Weusthoff, T., D. Leuenberger, C. Keil and G.C. Craig (2011): Best Member Selection for convective-scale ensembles, Meteorol. Z., 20, 153-164.
34. Zimmer, M., G. C. Craig , C. Keil, H. Wernli (2011): Classification of precipitation events with a convective response timescale and their forecasting characteristics. Geophys. Res. Lett. 38, L05802, doi:10.1029/2010GL046199.
35. Dengler, K., J. Anger, C. Keil (2011): Validation of Time-Lagged Ensemble Forecasts Relevant for Predicting Aircraft Wake Vortices. Meteorol. Z., 20, 625-634.
36. Bugliaro,L., T. Zinner, C. Keil, B. Mayer, R. Hollmann, M. Reuter, and W. Thomas (2011): Validation of Cloud Property Retrievals with Simulated Satellite Radiances: A Case Study for SEVIRI. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 5603–5624.
37. Barthlott C, Burton R, Kirshbaum D, Hanley K, Richard E, Chaboureau J-P, Trentmann J, Kern B, Bauer H-S, Schwitalla T, Keil C, Seity Y, Gadian A, Blyth A, Mobbs S, Flamant C, Handwerker J. (2011): Initiation of deep convection at marginal instability in an ensemble of mesoscale models: a case-study from COPS. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 137: 118–136. DOI:10.1002/qj.707
38. Rossa, A., K. Liechti, M. Zappa, M. Bruen, U. Germann, G. Haase, C. Keil, and P. Krahe (2011):The COST 731 Action: A review on uncertainty propagation in advanced hydro-meteorological forecast systems. Atmos. Res.,100, 150-167.
39. Rossa, A. , G. Haase, C. Keil, P. Alberoni, S. Ballard, J. Bech, U. Germann, M. Pfeifer and K. Salonen (2010): Propagation of uncertainty from observing systems into NWP: COST-731 Working Group 1. Atmos. Sci. Let., 11, 145-152.
40. Keil, C. and G. C. Craig (2009): A displacement and amplitude score employing an optical flow technique. Weather and Forecasting, 24, 1297-1308.
41. Rotach MW, Ambrosetti P, Ament F, Appenzeller C, Arpagaus M, Bauer HS, Behrendt A, Bouttier F, Buzzi A, Corazza M, Davolio S, Denhard M, Dorninger M, Fontannaz L, Frick J, Fundel F, Germann U, Gorgas T, Hegg C, Hering A, Keil C, Liniger MA, Marsigli C, McTaggart-Cowan R, Montani A, Mylne K, Ranzi R, Richard E, Rossa A, Santos-Muñoz D, Schär C, Seity Y, Staudinger M, Stoll M, Volkert H, Walser A, Wang Y, Werhahn J, Wulfmeyer V, Zappa M (2009): MAP D-PHASE: Real-time Demonstration of Weather Forecast Quality in the Alpine Region, Bull. Amer. Soc, 90, 1321-1336.
42. Dengler, K., C Keil, M Frech, T Gerz, K Kober (2009): Comparison and validation of two high-resolution weather forecast models at Frankfurt Airport, Meteorol. Z., 18, 531-542.
43. Trentmann, J.; Keil, C.; Salzmann, M.; Barthlott, C.; Bauer, H.-S.; Schwitalla, T.; Lowrence, M. G.; Leuenberger, D.; Wulfmeyer, V.; Corsmeier, U.; Kottmeier, C.; Wernli, H. (2009): Multi-model simulations of a convective situation in mountainous terrain. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 103, 95-103.DOI: 10.1007/s00703-008-0323-6
44. Pfeifer,M., G. C. Craig, M. Hagen, C. Keil (2008): A polarimetric radar forward operator for model evaluation. J. of Applied Meteorology, 47, 3202-3220.
45. Tafferner, Arnold; Hagen, Martin; Keil, Christian; Zinner, Tobias; Volkert, Hans; Forster, Caroline (2008): Development and Propagation of Severe Thunderstorms in the Upper Danube Catchment Area: Towards an Integrated Nowcasting and Forecasting System using Real-time Data and High-resolution Simulations. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, S. pp-17, DOI: 10.1007/s00703-008-0322-7
46. Keil, Christian; Röpnack, Andreas; Craig, George C.; Schumann, Ulrich (2008): Sensitivity of quantitative precipitation forecast to height dependent changes in humidity. Geophysical Research Letters, 35, S. L09812-1 - L09812-5, DOI: 10.1029/2008GL033657
47. Keil, Christian; Craig, George (2007): A displacement-based error measure applied in a regional ensemble forecasting system. Monthly Weather Review, 135, 3248 – 3259.
48. Keil, Christian; Tafferner, Arnold; Reinhardt, Thorsten (2006): Synthetic Satellite Imagery in the Lokal-Modell. Atmospheric Research, 82, 19-25.
49. Bock, Olivier; Keil, Christian, Richard, Evelyne; Flamant, Cyrille; Bouin, M.N. (2005): Validation of precipitable water from ECMWF model analyses with GPS and radiosonde data during the MAP SOP. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 131, 3013 - 3036, DOI 10.1256/qj.05.27
50. Richard, Evelyne; Buzzi, Andrea; Zängl, Günther; Asencio, Nicole; Benoit, Robert; Chiao, Sen; Ferretti, Rossella; Hohenegger, Cathy; Keil, Christian; Lin, Yuh-Lang; Marsigli, Chiara; Medina, Socorro; Schär, Christoph (2005): Quantitative precipitation forecasting in mountainous regions - pushed ahead by MAP. Croatian Meteorological Journal, 40, Proceed. ICAM/MAP2005, Zadar, 65 – 69.
51. Keil, C.; Cardinali, C. (2004): The ECMWF Re-analysis of the MAP Special Observing Period. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 130, 2837 – 2850.
52. Lascaux, F.; Richard, E.; Keil, C.; Bock, O. (2004): Impact of the MAP Reanalysis on the Numerical Simulation of the MAP IOP2a Convective System. Meteorol. Z., 13, 49 – 54.
53. Keil, C.; Tafferner, A.; Mannstein, H.; Schättler, U. (2003): Evaluating High-Resolution Model Forecasts of European Winter Storms by Use of Satellite and Radar Observations. Weather and Forecasting, 18, 732 – 747.
54. Volkert, H.; Keil, C.; Kiemle, C.; Poberaj, G.; Chaboureau, J.P.; Richard, E. (2003): Gravity Waves over the Eastern Alps: A Synopsis of the 25 October 1999 Event (IOP 10) Combining In-Situ and Remote Sensing Measurements with a High-Resolution Simulation. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 129, 777 – 797.
55. Benoit, R.; Schär, C.; Binder, P.; Chamberland, S.; Davies, H.C.; Desgagné, M.; Girard, C.; Keil, C.; Kouwen, N.; Lüthi, D.; Maric, D.; Müller, E.; Pellerin, P.; Schmidli, J.; Schubiger, F.; Schwierz, C.; Sprenger, M.; Walser, A.; Willemse, S.; Yu, W.; Zala, E. (2002): The Real-Time Ultrafinescale Forecast Support during the Special Observing Period of the MAP. Bull. Amer. Soc,. 83, 85 – 109.
56. Keil, C.; Hagen, M. (2000): Evaluation of High Resolution NWP Simulations with Radar Data. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth (B), 25, 1267 – 1272.
57. Keil, C.; Volkert, H. (2000): Precipitation in the Northern Alpine Region: Case-Study-Type Validation of an Operational Forecast Model. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 72, 161 – 173.
58. Keil, C.; Volkert, H.; Majewski, D. (1999): The Oder Flood in July 1997: Transport of Precipitable Water Diagnosed with an Operational Forecast Model. Geophysical Research Letters, 26, 235 – 238.

Christian Keil 20.2.2025