Coupled Chemistry-Climate Model Assessment and Predictions of Ozone Recovery in the 21st century

Veronika Eyring

DLR-Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, Wessling

Germany

email:   Veronika.Eyring@dlr.de

Accurate and reliable predictions and an understanding of future changes in the stratosphere are of major importance to climate change. Simulating the interaction between chemistry and climate is of particular importance, because continued increases in greenhouse gases and a slow decrease in halogen loading are expected. These both influence the abundance of stratospheric ozone. In recent years a number of coupled chemistry-climate models (CCMs) have been developed. The CCM community has defined reference simulations and a set of model forcings to support the upcoming WMO/UNEP Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion. In this study we first evaluate the results of the reference simulations of 13 CCMs with detailed stratospheric chemistry schemes. Simulations of the same CCMs are then also used to examine the predicted evolution and recovery of stratospheric ozone in the 21st century